By Ian Hacking
One among Ian Hacking's earliest guides, this publication showcases his early rules at the critical options and questions surrounding statistical reasoning. He explores the elemental rules of statistical reasoning and checks them, either at a philosophical point and when it comes to their useful effects for statisticians. offered in a clean twenty-first-century sequence livery, and together with a in particular commissioned preface written through Jan-Willem Romeijn, illuminating its enduring significance and relevance to philosophical enquiry, Hacking's influential and unique paintings has been revived for a brand new iteration of readers.
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Extra resources for Logic of Statistical Inference
Sample text
Unless one specifies or assumes a purpose, there may be little point in asking after the best estimate. But one may perfectly well determine which hypothesis is best supported without weighing ends in a similar matter. Support is a concept independent of utility. support 27 Even in pure science where the sole aim is supposed to be truth, this distinction is as important as ever. Speaking very intuitively for a moment, an estimate is good if it is very probable that the true value is near it. But an hypothesis is not best supported according as it is probable or not that the truth lies near the hypothesis.
Perhaps that is all he can do; it is a situation which some kinds of mathematician find unpalatable, but they are free to work at other things. Students with a philosophical bent, or with a genuine interest in the theory, will turn themselves to the ‘inductive’ question, repeatedly testing the postulates in terms of their consequences. Moreover, two kinds of purely mathematical result still remain. First, a set of postulates might be so strong that adding any underivable proposition—or any underivable proposition of a certain sort—would simply lead to contradiction.
Let there be given trials of kind K. By a compound trial I shall here mean a sequence of n consecutive trials of kind K. If the n trials have results E1 , E2 , . . , En , the compound trial has as result the ordered set hE1 , E2 , . . En i: A compound kind of trial is one in which any particular trial is as just described, and in which the next trial of the same kind is based in the same way on the next n consecutive trials of kind K. Evidently outcomes of a compound kind of trial are composed of outcomes of the n trials of kind K.