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10-K Form. 15 Using the most polite description for what happened in this corporation. 16 MV = Market value as reported by a company for an year end. 17 BV = Value of shareholders equity after minority interests stated in financials. 18 SMOG as reported In financials. 19 SMOG reported for the preceeding year against the current year end BV. 1. Y. SMOG23 MV-BV as % of as % of (MV-BV) (MV-BV) mo USD BP 2002 151 615 66 636 76 500 84 979 90 52 BP 2001 173 916 62 322 44 500 111 594 40 BP 2000 172 671 65 554 N/A N/A N/A N/A ExxonMobil 2006 438 990 113 844 130 248 325 146 40 51 ExxonMobil 2005 344 491 111 186 164 307 233 305 70 47 ExxonMobil 2004 328 128 101 756 110 696 226 372 49 44 ExxonMobil 2003 269 294 89 915 99 240 179 379 55 54 ExxonMobil 2002 234 101 74 597 96 559 159 504 61 33 ExxonMobil 2001 267 577 73 161 53 248 194 416 27 50 ExxonMobil 2000 301 239 70 757 97 252 230 482 42 Royal Dutch Shell 2006 222 945 114 945 53 797 108 000 50 67 Royal Dutch Shell 2005 200 614 97 224 72 295 103 390 70 54 Royal Dutch Shell 2004 193 720 84 576 55 985 109 144 51 54 Royal Dutch Shell 2003 178 169 72 848 59 451 105 321 56 57 Royal Dutch Shell 2002 151 123 60 444 60 362 90 679 67 45 Royal Dutch Shell 2001 140 889 56 160 40 414 84 729 48 80 Royal Dutch Shell 2000 186 872 57 086 67 906 129 786 52 The following interesting observations could be made based on the aforementioned values: – quite consistent results were obtained when the preceding year SMOG is compared to the premium of MV over BV, which is not the case if current values are examined for both – there is a tempting hypothesis that investors do know and take into account the SMOG for a preceding year rather than for a current year while taking investment decisions; – all companies had been quoted well above their book value but, with exception of ChevronTexaco, not above the SMOG premium over book value; – the SMOG value is greater (expressed as a percentage of MV/BV premium) for the couple renowned for its upstream activity than for the ones relying more on downstream (see Table 0-1 for reference).
There are numerous reasons behind their methodological difficulties. The most important ones are: – Differing perceptions of values for evaluating investment projects and for estimating the social value of a resource. – A varied level of values depending on the time of resource exploitation and its introduction into the economic and financial turnover (the present value and the option value of a resource). – Lack of valuation methodologies with a relevant degree of universality for these applications.
BV = Value of shareholders equity after minority interests stated in financials. 22 SMOG as reported In financials. 23 SMOG reported for the preceding year against the current year end BV. 21 24 Copyright © 2008 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK Table 0-1. Importance of upstream activities measured by upstream contribution to profitability Company Year Comments Total Upstream Upstream share in total ChevronTexaco ChevronTexaco ChevronTexaco ChevronTexaco ChevronTexaco ChevronTexaco ChevronTexaco 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax 17 138 14 099 13 328 7230 1132 3288 6322 13 142 11 724 9490 6198 4556 4312 6264 77% 83% 71% 86% 402% 131% 99% BP BP BP BP BP BP BP 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS UK GAAP UK GAAP 35 411 30 038 24 385 18 724 11 200 19 608 21 253 29 647 25 485 18 075 15 081 8277 14 498 15 710 84% 85% 74% 81% 74% 74% 74% ExxonMobil ExxonMobil ExxonMobil ExxonMobil ExxonMobil ExxonMobil ExxonMobil 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax 39 500 36 130 25 330 21 510 11 460 15 320 26 230 24 349 16 675 14 502 9598 10 736 66% 67% 66% 67% 84% 70% Royal Dutch Shell Royal Dutch Shell Royal Dutch Shell Royal Dutch Shell Royal Dutch Shell Royal Dutch Shell Royal Dutch Shell 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax US GAAP, after interest and tax 37 678 37 341 26 220 12 496 9722 10 350 12 719 29 377 25 268 17 335 9105 6796 7963 10 059 78% 68% 66% 73% 70% 77% 79% The above presented review is definitely not sufficient to establish a clear link between SMOG and a value of oil and gas company perceived by the market.